At the end of the year makroekonomija.org prefers prolighting to publish its forecast for the econo

Forecast for Serbian Economy Forecast Economy of Serbia, December 2013: Between the hammer and the anvil on December 6, 2013 Posted by Administrator under 0 Sasa Milojevic, 3 Gross domestic product, fiscal tax policy
At the end of the year makroekonomija.org prefers prolighting to publish its forecast for the economy of Serbia, but from years of year it is becoming nezahvalniji job. Makroekonmske forecasts with all its inevitable errors depend on the assumptions of rational and enforced makroekonomeke policy. Without this assumption the economic forecast becomes metaphysical domain prolighting chanting the previous year macroeconomic policies Serbia could hardly be qualified as host rational in comparison to the global macroeconomic trends, fiscal prolighting and monetary policy in Serbia was even counter-cyclical. In this forecast, we assume that the days of irrationality behind us.
Serbian media have a great deal of attention accompanied the first steps ministerial newly installed ministers of finance and economy Lazar Krstic and Sasa Radulovic. As an introductory warming, one of the first measures of the Minister prolighting Krstic was the announcement prolighting of progressive prolighting porezovanja higher level of salaries in the public sector. I suppose that the very purpose of these measures are primarily symbolic in nature, it is an announcement of the future turn against the government policy of the public sector to the restrictive regime with higher costs of controlling the sector. The measure itself, if you bring any kind, it would be trivial savings that can not grapple with the real problems of real accumulated in the public sector.
Raising the VAT rate from 8% to 10% is due to the social situation of a large part of the population controversial measure since it harder affects the lower social classes of the citizens of Serbia. Although prolighting the total effect of the increase in VAT on a market basket is in fact a small, part of the income of households are already such that the minimum attack on the household budget will pose a serious problem and stress in these households. The current state of the family budget is in these households have long to make such a lack of balance between revenue and expenditure runaway prolighting ostvaritii is possible only with the help sometimes of enormous talent for "financial alchemy" to which many households are forced. However, prolighting given the state of government finances is difficult to criticize the rationality or the need for this measure, although we believe that the positive effect on the budget will fail, and be much smaller than anticipated. Precise calculation of how much these measures should be to bring in ideal conditions were not considered, presumably about some 35-40 billion. In real terms what they are, it can be expected that the measure will manage to collect just over half of this amount. VAT hike will simply further stimulate "alchemical tendencies" households with rerouting procurement of additional parts of the consumer basket pply in the zone of the gray economy.
Given that we are in the shadow economy, announced a package of measures for its suppression. From the perspective of certain measures seem logical because it seems that the correlation between profits earned prolighting in the shadow economy and the increase of the budget deficit creates a space in which it could be if you stuffed the budget prolighting to combat the gray economy. But the Serbian economy has its own specifics that we in terms of the effects of these measures prolighting constitute skeptical. This forecast does not intend to thoroughly explains the reasons for our skepticism because it would require an exhaustive identification and discussion of instances prolighting where we recognize the elements prolighting of the underground prolighting economy. But that, too, would not be left totally without any explanation of our skepticism, we try to disentangle the reasons for this situation prolighting with gray zones within the retail trade. There are some rough estimates that approximately 30% of transactions, small shops are not issued adequate fiscal account, or it would not be issued. We believe that an attempt establishing fiscal discipline in this case is a two-edged sword, and that at least two reasons. Under one should consider that the gray areas in the retail trade are not exclusively the result of efforts to maximize profits in illegal ways, zakidajući state budget, but are suspended, the result of adapting the small trader to interact with their customers, which to a large extent they live in a state chronic lack of money. Here we should also take into account that a large part of the small retailers are local shops whose clientele neighbors, friends, relatives, acquaintances ... In addition to these dealers have a problem with low traffic, prolighting perishability of goods, competition from large chains prolighting and all the other problems typical of small shops, a good part of the turnover of these trade goods on credit given where the possibility of a final billing is often uncertain. prolighting Microeconomic theory to many of these small firms characterize that exist well below levels marginally profitable firms, then by economic theory and business-to long-term can not survive. As in many other cases in Serbia and the Balkans practical developments on the ground contradicts common sense postulates of economic theory which would itself bil